Impact areas
Time Periods
Climate representations
Maps
Multiple selections
Hydrological variables
Impact variables for natural ecosystems
Growing Degree Days
Energy indices
Climate variables
Lake variables
MyLake model
Agricultural variables
Climate models
WSFS Hydrological model
Palsa model

Agricultural variables are shown as variable values for three future time periods

1. 2010 - 2039
2. 2040 - 2069
3. 2070 - 2099

• with emission scenarios
  
• • A1FI and
    
  • B1 and four climate models:

• CSIRO-Mk2,
• HadCM3,
• ECH4OPYC and
• NCAR

• with emission scenarios
  
• • A2 and
    
  • B2 and six climate models:
    

• CSIRO-Mk2,
• HadCM3,
• ECH4OPYC
  
• CCCma
• GFDL and
• NCAR

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Temperature requirements for crops can be estimated with threshold values for the Effective Temperature Sum (ETS) or growing degree days (GDD). A location is regarded as suitable for the cultivation of a certain crop, when the ETS exceeds the threshold value. ETS-based models have been developed for different crops which vary on the selection of a base temperature, the growing season over which to calculate degree days and the ETS-threshold value (Carter et al. 1991). Using gridded temperature database, it is then possible to map the area suitable for the cultivation of a crop (Fronzek et al. 2006).

The crops presented are grain maize and a short-stemmed sunflower variety with the following ETS models:

• maize?? ?Thermal suitability for the cultivation of grain maize (Zea mays) ? GDD10 ? 850?Cd
• sunf?? ?Thermal suitability for the cultivation of short-stemmed sunflower ? GDD6_15.4.-30.9. ? 1050?Cd

References

1. Carter TR, Parry ML & Porter JH (1991) Climatic change and future agroclimatic potential in Europe. In-ternational Journal of Climatology 11: 251-269.
2. Fronzek, S. & T.R. Carter (2006). Assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts on resource potential for Europe based on projections from RCMs and GCMs. Climatic Change, in press.

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