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Scenario Gateway

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PROJECT PUBLICATIONS

Scenario integration

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Refereed publications

Carter, T. R. 2004: FINSKEN: Global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 89. [download]

Carter, T. R., Fronzek, S. and Bärlund, I. 2004: FINSKEN: a framework for developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 91–107. [download]

Carter, T.R. 2001. Uncertainties in assessing the impacts of regional climate change. In: Brunet India, M. and Bonillo, D.L. (Eds.). Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 441-469. [book summary]

Carter, T.R., Hulme, M., Crossley, J.F., Malyshev, S., New, M.G., Schlesinger, M.E. and Tuomenvirta, H. 2000. Climate Change in the 21st Century – Interim Characterizations based on the New IPCC Emissions Scenarios. The Finnish Environment 433, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, 148 pp. [download]

Carter, T.R., La Rovere, E.L., Jones, R.N., Leemans, R., Mearns, L.O., Nakicenovic, N., Pittock, A.B., Semenov, S.M. and Skea, J. 2001. Developing and applying scenarios. In: McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J. and White, K.S. (Eds.). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 145-190. [WG II Summary for Policymakers]

Hulme, M. and Carter, T.R. 2000. The changing climate of Europe. In: M. Parry (Ed.). Assessment of Potential Effects and Adaptations for Climate Change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA Project. Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, pp. 47-84. [summary]

Linkosalo, T., Carter, T.R., Häkkinen, R. and Hari, P. 2000. Predicting spring phenology and frost damage risk of Betula spp. under climatic warming: a comparison of two models. Tree Physiology 20:1175–1182. [abstract]

Mearns, L.O., Hulme, M., Carter, T.R., Leemans, R., Lal, M. and Whetton, P. 2001. Climate scenario development. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. and Johnson, C.A. (Eds.). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp. 739-768. [WG I Summary for Policymakers]
 

Other publications

Bärlund, I. and Carter, T.R. 2001. A survey of the potential user-requirements for global change scenarios in Finland. Summary report. [download]

Carter, T.R. (Ed.). 2000. FINSKEN: Developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland. Finnish Environment Institute, 4 pp. [document pdf, 266KB]

IPCC-TGCIA 1999. Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Version 1. Prepared by Carter, T.R., Hulme, M. and Lal, M. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Task Group on Scenarios for Climate Impact Assessment, 69 pp. [download]

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Socio-economic scenarios

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Refereed publications

Kaivo-oja, J., Luukkanen, J. and Wilenius, M. 2004: Defining alternative national-scale socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100: SRES scenarios for the case of Finland. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 109–125. [download]

Heinonen, S., Jokinen, P. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2001. The ecological transparency of the information society. Futures 33: 319-337.

Hoffrén, J., Luukkanen, J. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2001. Decomposition analyses of Finnish material flows: 1960-1996. Journal of Industrial Ecology 4: 105-126. [abstract]

Kaivo-oja, J. 1999. Alternative scenarios of social development: Is analytical sustainability policy analysis possible? How? Sustainable Development 7: 140-150.

Kaivo-oja, J. 2001. Scenario learning and potential sustainable development processes in spatial contexts: towards risk society or ecological modernization scenarios? Futures Research Quarterly 17: 33-55.

Kaivo-oja, J. 2001. Comment on Ash Amin's interview: economic and human geography in the making: notes on a dialogue between Ash Amin and Paul Krugman. Economia Global e Gestáo. Global Economics and Management Review 1: 159-165.

Kaivo-oja, J. 2002. Social and ecological destruction in the first class: A plausible social development scenario. Sustainable Development 10: 63-66.

Kaivo-oja, J., Luukkanen, J. and Malaska, P. 2001. Advanced sustainability analysis. In: Tolba, M.K. (ed.) Our Fragile World. Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Development. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems and Sustainable Development. Vol 2. Oxford, EOLSS Publishers Co. Ltd.

Kaivo-oja, J., Luukkanen, J. and Malaska, P. 2001. Sustainability evaluation frameworks and alternative analytical scenarios of national economies. Population and Environment. A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 23: 193-215.

Luukkanen, J. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2002. ASEAN tigers and sustainability of energy use: Decomposition analysis of energy and CO2 efficiency dynamics. Energy Policy 30: 281-292.

Luukkanen, J. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2002. A comparison of Nordic energy and CO2 intensity dynamics in the years 1960-1997. Energy - The International Journal 27: 135-150.

Seppälä, T., Haukioja, T. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2001. The EKC hypothesis does not hold for direct material flows. An environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis tests for direct material flows in 5 industrial countries. Population and Environment. A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 23: 217-238.

Tirkkonen, J., Kaivo-oja, J. and Wilenius, M. 2001. Ilmastoneuvotteluiden tuskainen taival kohti Kioton pöytäkirjan toimeenpanoa. Ulkopolitiikka 38: 116-129.

Vehmas, J., Luukkanen, J. and Kaivo-oja, J. 1999. Kansainvälisen ilmastopolitiikan muotoutuminen ja Suomi. Ulkopolitiikka 36: 5-21.
 

Other publications

Kaivo-oja, J. 2000. Integroitu sosio-ekonomisten ja ekologisten vaikutusten arviointi alue- ja yhteiskuntasuunnittelun haasteena. In: Kurki, S., Linnamaa, R. and Sotarauta, M. (eds.) 14 Näkökulmaa Alueelliseen Kehittämiseen. Seinäjoen I aluekehittämissminaarin julkaisu. Tampereen yliopisto. Alueellisen kehittämisen tutkimusyksikkö. SENTE-julkaisuja 5/2000, Tampereen yliopistopaino, Tampere, pp. 116-139. (in Finnish)

Kaivo-oja, J. 2000. Thinking of our moral responsibility to future generations. Economic perspectives to equity problems in climate change policy. In: Haukkala, V. (ed.) Every Human has an Equal Right…? Equity Problems and Climate Policy and Politics. University of Tampere, Department of Regional Studies and Environmental Policy. Environmental Policy Publications 1. Tampere, pp. 35-71.

Kaivo-oja, J. 2001. Challenges of visionary management in multilevel planning environment: How Murphy´s laws may emerge in global sustainability policy? In: Stevenson, T., Barbieri Masini, E., Rubin, A. and Lehmann-Chadha, M. (eds.) The Quest for the Futures: A Methodology Seminar in Futures Studies. Selection from the Methodology Seminar in Futures Studies, Turku, Finland, June 12-.15, 2000. Finland Futures Research Centre. World Futures Studies Federation. Painosalama Oy, Turku, pp. 71-93.

Kaivo-oja, J. and Suvinen, N. 2001. Sosiaali- ja terveysalan tulevaisuuden näkymät vuoteen 2030. In: Voutilainen, P., Saranto, K., Peiponen, A., and Mikkola T. (Eds.). Hoitotyön vuosikirja 2002. Hoitotyön tulevaisuus. Hygieia. Kustannusosakeyhtiö Tammi, Helsinki, pp. 9-45. (in Finnish)

Katko, T., Seppälä, O. and Kaivo-oja, J. (Eds.). 2001. Management of Water, Wastewater and Solid Waste Services in Comparative Historical and Futures Perspective. Proceedings of a Nordic Research Workshop Supported by NorFa: TUT, IEEB: 10-12 June, 2001, 173 pp.

Luukkanen, J. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2000. HILMA-long run accounting model for socio-economic scenarios. Version 3. CD-ROM.

Luukkanen, J. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2001. Energy and CO2 efficiency in developing countries. Comparison of key developing countries and ASEAN countries from the point of view of climate policy. In: Lacuna-Richman, C. and Kaisti, H. (Eds). Tropical forests. Facing new modes of governance in the global era. Research Notes 135, Faculty of Forestry, University of Joensuu, pp. 13-51.

Luukkanen, J., Kaivo-oja, J. and Vehmas, J. 2000. Rakennemuutos Suomessa vuosina 1975-1996. Dekompositiomalliin perustuvia tuloksia sähkön, työpanoksen ja pääoman käytön muutoksista eri tuotantosektoreilla. Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja. Vsk. 96. No. 1, pp. 19-38 (in Finnish).

Luukkanen, J., Kaivo-oja, J., Vehmas, J. and Tirkkonen, J. 2000. Climate Change Policy Options for the European Union: Analyse of Emission Trends and CO2 Efficiency. TUTU-publications 1/2000. Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics and Business Administration, Turku, 49 pp. [download]

Malaska, P., Kaivo-oja, J. and Luukkanen, J. 1999. Sustainability and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Framework and Empirical Demonstrations. Futu-publication 4/99. Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics and Business Administration.

Malaska, P., Luukkanen, J. and Kaivo-oja, J. 2000. A new sustainability evaluation framework and alternative analytical scenarios of national economies. Transitions Towards a Sustainable Europe Ecology - Economy - Policy. 3rd Biennial Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics. Vienna, 3. - 6. May 2000. Session Ib3. Theme: Ecological Economics Modeling and Material and Energy Flows. 19 p.

Description of work and Research group and Results

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Atmospheric composition scenarios

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Refereed publications

Laurila, T., Tuovinen, J.-P., Tarvainen, V. and Simpson, D. 2004: Trends and scenarios of ground-level ozone concentrations in Finland. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 167–184. [download]

Emberson, L.D., Ashmore, M.R., Simpson, D., Tuovinen, J.-P. and Cambridge, H.M. 2001. Modelling and mapping ozone deposition in Europe. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 130: 577–582.

Simpson, D., Tuovinen, J.-P., Emberson, L. and Ashmore, M. 2001. Characteristics of an ozone deposition module. Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus 1, 263–274.

Sofiev, M. and Tuovinen, J.-P. 2001. Factors determining the robustness of AOT40 and other ozone exposure indices. Atmospheric Environment 35: 3521–3528.

Tuovinen, J.-P., Simpson, D., Mikkelsen, T. N., Emberson, L. D., Ashmore, M. R. Aurela, M., Cambridge, H. M., Hovmand, M. F., Jensen, N. O., Laurila, T., Pilegaard, K. and Ro-Poulsen, H. 2001. Comparisons of measured and modelled ozone deposition to forests in Northern Europe. Water, Air and Soil Pollution Focus 1, 263–274.
 

Other publications

Emberson, L.D., Simpson, D., Tuovinen, J.-P., Ashmore, M.R. and Cambridge, H.M. 2000. Towards a model of ozone deposition and stomatal uptake over Europe. EMEP/MSC-W Note 6/2000. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, 58 pp.
[document pdf, 1.7MB]

Laurila, T., Tuovinen, J.-P. and Lindfors, V. 2001. Frequency distributions of ozone concentration and the uncertainty in the AOT40 index. In: Midgley, P. M., Reuther, M. and Williams, M. (Eds.). Transport and Chemical Transformation in the Troposphere: Proceedings of the EUROTRAC-2 Symposium 2000, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, CD-ROM, pp. 1300–1304.

Simpson, D., Emberson, L., Tuovinen, J.-P. and Ashmore, M. 2000. Ozone deposition and stomatal flux modelling. In: Transboundary Photo-oxidants in Europe, EMEP Summary Report 2000, EMEP/MSC-W Report 2/2000, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, pp. 5–9. [document pdf, 372KB]

Tuovinen, J.-P., Emberson, L. D., Simpson, D., Ashmore, M. R., Aurela, M. and Cambridge, H. M. 2001. A new dry deposition module for ozone: comparisons with measurements. In: Midgley, P. M., Reuther, M. and Williams, M. (Eds.). Transport and Chemical Transformation in the Troposphere: Proceedings of the EUROTRAC-2 Symposium 2000, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, CD-ROM, pp. 445–449.

Tuovinen, J.-P., Simpson, D., Mayerhofer, P., Lindfors, V. and Laurila, T. 2002. Surface ozone exposures in Northern Europe in changing environmental conditions. In: A Changing Atmosphere: Proceedings of the 8th European Symposium on the Physico-Chemical Behaviour of Atmospheric Pollutants, 6 pp. (in press).

Posters

Emberson, L. D., Ashmore, M. R., Simpson, D., Tuovinen, J.-P. and Cambridge, H. M. 2000. Modelling and mapping of stomatal uptake of ozone by European vegetation as a component of ozone dry deposition. In: Abstracts of the Sixth International Conference on Air-Surface Exchange of Gases and Particles, Edinburgh, Scotland, 3–7 July 2000, CEH Edinburgh, UK, p. 84.

Laurila, T., Tuovinen, J.-P., Lindfors, V. and Simpson, D. 2001. Surface ozone concentrations and exposures in Finland in the 21st century based on the SRES emission scenarios. In: Ennola E. (Ed.). FIGARE Annual meeting 2001: Integrated Global Change Research, Poster abstracts, 17–18 September, Hämeenlinna, Finland, p. 14.

Description of work and Research group and Results

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Acid deposition scenarios

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Refereed publications

Syri, S., Fronzek, S., Karvosenoja, N. and Forsius, M. 2004: Sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in Europe and deposition in Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 185–198. [download]

Syri, S., Amann, M., Capros, P., Mantzos, L., Cofala, J. and Klimont, Z. 2001. Low-CO2 energy pathways and regional air pollution in Europe. Energy Policy 29: 871–884. [download]

Syri S. and Karvosenoja N. 2001. Low-CO2 energy pathways versus emission control policies in acidification reduction. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 130: 1831–1836.

Syri S., Karvosenoja N., Lehtilä A., Laurila T., Lindfors V. and Tuovinen J.-P. 2002. Modeling the impacts of the Finnish climate strategy on air pollution. Atmospheric Environment 36(19): 3059–3069.
 

Other publications

Hildén, M., Attila, M., Hiltunen, M., Karvosenoja, N. and Syri, S. 2001. Kansallisen ilmastostrategian ympäristövaikutusten arviointi. (The environmental impacts assessment of the Finnish climate strategy). The Finnish Environment 482, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, 105 pp. (in Finnish with English summary). [available at]

Karvosenoja, N. and Johansson, M. 2001. Primary particulate emissions in the Finnish climate strategy. Proc. of 12th World Clean Air & Environment Congress, Seoul, South Korea, 27th-31st August, 2001. 6 pp.

Syri, S., Karvosenoja, N., Lehtilä, A., Laurila, T., Lindfors, V. and Tuovinen, J.-P. 2001. Modeling the impacts of the Finnish climate strategy on air pollution. Proc. of 12th World Clean Air & Environment Congress, Seoul, South Korea, 27th-31st August, 2001. 6 pp.
 

Academic theses

Syri, S. 2001. Air pollutants and energy pathways: Extending models for abatement strategies. Monographs of the Boreal Environment Research 19, 43 pp. (Dissertation) [download]

Description of work and Research group and Results

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Climate scenarios

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Refereed publications

Jylhä, K., Tuomenvirta, H. and Ruosteenoja, K. 2004: Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 127–152. [download]

Alexandersson, H., Tuomenvirta, H., Schmith, T. and Iden, 2000. Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set. Climate Research 14: 71-73. [abstract]

Carter, T.R., Hulme, M., Crossley, J.F., Malyshev, S., New, M.G., Schlesinger, M.E., and Tuomenvirta, H. 2000. Climate Change in the 21st Century: Interim Characterizations based on the New IPCC Emissions Scenarios. The Finnish Environment 433, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki. 150 pp. [abstract]

Haapala, J., Juottonen, A., Marnela, M., Leppäranta, M. and Tuomenvirta, H. 2001. Modelling the variability of sea-ice conditions in the Baltic Sea under different climate conditions. Annals of Glaciology, 33. (in press)

Tuomenvirta, H. 2001. Homogeneity adjustments of temperature and precipitation series – Finnish and Nordic data. Int. J. Climatol. 21: 495–506. [abstract]

Tuomenvirta, H., 2002. Homogeneity testing and adjustment of climatic time series in Finland. Geophysica. (accepted)

Tuomenvirta, H., Alexandersson, H., Drebs, A., Frich, P., and Nordli, P.O. 2000. Trends in Nordic and Arctic temperature extremes and ranges. J. Climate 13: 977-990. [abstract]

Tuomenvirta, H., Venäläinen, A. and Haapala, J. 2001. The impact of climate change on transport conditions in Finland. In: Brunet India, M. and Bonillo, D.L. (Eds.). Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 593-604. [book summary]

Venäläinen, A., Tuomenvirta, H., Lahtinen, R., and Heikinheimo, M. 2001. The influence of climate warming on soil frost on snow-free surfaces in Finland. Climatic Change 50: 111-128. [abstract]

Venäläinen, A., Tuomenvirta, H., Heikinheimo, M., Kellomäki, S., Peltola, H., Strandman, H. and Väisänen, H. 2001. The impact of climate change on soil frost under snow cover in a forested landscape. Climate Research 17: 63-72. [abstract]
 

Other publications

Tuomenvirta, H. 2000. FINSKEN climate - AOGCM simulations of temperature and precipitation change in Finland. Proceedings of the 22nd Nordic Meteorologists' Meeting, 6 pp. 

Tuomenvirta, H., Venäläinen, A., Juottonen, A., and Haapala, J. 2000. The impact of climate change on the Baltic Sea ice and soil frost beneath snow-free surfaces in Finland. Ministry of Transport and Communications Finland Publications 13/2000, 56 pp. [abstract]

Tuomenvirta, H., Uusitalo, K., Vehviläinen, B. and Carter, T.R. 2000. Ilmastonmuutos, mitoitussadanta ja patoturvallisuus: Arvio sadannan ja sen ääriarvojen sekä lämpötilan muutoksista Suomessa vuoteen 2100. (Climate change, design precipitation and dam safety: estimate of changes in precipitation, its extremes and temperature in Finland up to 2100). Finnish Meteorological Institute Reports 4/2000, 65 pp. (in Finnish with English summary).
 

Posters

Jylhä, K. 2001. Changes in the frequency of airflow types over Finland - a preliminary study. Climate Change Symposium "Climate Change and Variability in Northern Europe", Turku, Finland, June 6-8th 2001. [document pdf, 206KB]

Tuomenvirta, H., Uusitalo, K., Vehviläinen, B., Carter, T.R. and Jylhä, K. 2000. Estimate of changes in precipitation, its extremes and temperature in Finland up to 2100. The Climate Impacts LINK Project 4th Workshop "Current Climate Change Science and Impacts Studies" 13-15th September 2000. [document pdf, 192KB]

Tuomenvirta, H. 2001. Climate variations in Finland during the 20th century. Climate Change Symposium "Climate Change and Variability in Northern Europe", Turku, Finland, June 6-8th 2001. [document pdf, 360KB]

Wajda, A., Venäläinen, A., Tuomenvirta, H. and Jylhä, K. 2001. The influence of climate change on heating demand in three European countries. Climate Change Symposium "Climate Change and Variability in Northern Europe", Turku, Finland, June 6-8th 2001. [document pdf, 1.9MB]
 

Academic theses

Jylhä, K. 2000. The scavenging of air pollutants by precipitation, 
and its estimation with the aid weather radar. Department of
Meteorology, University of Helsinki, Report 50, 58 p.+appendix (Dissertation) [download]

Tuomenvirta, H. 2000. Homogeneity testing and analysis of climatological time series from Finland and the Nordic region. Department of Meteorology, University of Helsinki, 59 pp. + 31 pp. appendix (Licentiate thesis)

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Sea-level scenarios

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Refereed publications

Johansson, M. M., Kahma, K. K., Boman, H. and Launiainen, J. 2004: Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast. Boreal Env. Res. 9: 153–166. [download]

Kahma, K.K., Boman, H., Johansson, M.M. and Launiainen, J., 2003. The North Atlantic Oscillation and sea level variations in the Baltic Sea. ICES Marine Science Symposia, 219: 365-366.

Johansson, M.M., Kahma, K.K. and Boman, H., 2003. An Improved Estimate for the Long-Term Mean Sea Level on the Finnish Coast. Geophysica 39(1-2): 51-73.

Johansson, M., Boman, H., Kahma, K.K. and Launiainen, J. 2001. Trends in sea level variability in the Baltic Sea. Boreal Environment Research 6: 159-179. [document pdf, 282KB]
 

Posters

Johansson, M., Boman, H., Kahma, K. and Launiainen, J. 2000. Trends in sea level variations in the Baltic Sea (poster abstract). Man and the Baltic Sea. Third Environment Symposium of the Maj and Tor Nessling Foundation. 2-3 October 2000, Helsinki, Finland.

Kahma, K. K., Boman, H., Johansson, M. and Launiainen, J., 2001. North Atlantic Oscillation and sea level variations in the Baltic Sea. ICES Symposium, Hydrobiological Variability in the ICES Area, 1990-1999. 8-10 August 2001, Edinburgh, Scotland.

Kahma, K., Johansson, M. and Boman, H., 2001. Relative land uplift in the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Paper presented in: IAG International symposium on Recent Crustal Movements SRCM’01. 27-31 August 2001, Helsinki, Finland.

Launiainen, J., Seinä, A., Johansson, M., Lahtinen, M., Alenius, P. and Bareiss, J. 2001. Northern Atlantic forcing reflections to sea ice and hydrological conditions in the northern seas. Third Study Conference on BALTEX. 2-6 July 2001, Mariehamn, Finland. [download]

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