Description of each scenario field:
FINSKEN brochure (pdf, 266KB)
Finnish Global Change Research Programme (FIGARE), which was jointly funded by the Academy of Finland (67%) and the Ministry of Transport and Communications (33%). The project was co-ordinated at the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), and comprised six research groups working in four institutes: SYKE, the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR).
FINSKEN has developed up-to-date projections of changes in environmental and related factors in Finland during the 21st century and beyond. In order to judge the likely future implications of global changes in Finland it is necessary to improve the understanding of current trends and to project them into the future. Given the uncertainties associated with estimates of future human behaviour, it is impossible to predict the future with any confidence; rather it is customary to construct "scenarios", which describe plausible future conditions. The scenarios developed by the different FINSKEN research groups include ( Figure [pdf, 34KB]):
With a given set of socio-economic assumptions it is possible to calculate a range of plausible scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere. Similarly, for a given emissions scenario, it is possible to estimate the concentrations of gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, their effects on the radiation balance of the Earth, and their effect on the climate and, subsequently, on sea level. Since projections are uncertain at each link of the chain, sets of scenarios need to be developed that represent the range of uncertainty at each level.
Another key objective of FINSKEN was to prepare scenarios that are of relevance to potential users. The project attempted to identify and involve these "stakeholders" through the preparation of a brochure, a questionnaire study, scenario seminars and small group, sectoral discussions.
Research Programme for Global Change (GTO) | Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)
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