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Scenario Gateway

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DESCRIPTION OF THE FINSKEN PROJECT

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Description of each scenario field:

Download document FINSKEN brochure (pdf, 266KB)


General

FINSKEN is a recently completed project (1999-2002) in the Finnish Global Change Research Programme (FIGARE), which was jointly funded by the Academy of Finland (67%) and the Ministry of Transport and Communications (33%). The project was co-ordinated at the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), and comprised six research groups working in four institutes: SYKE, the Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research (FIMR).

FINSKEN has developed up-to-date projections of changes in environmental and related factors in Finland during the 21st century and beyond. In order to judge the likely future implications of global changes in Finland it is necessary to improve the understanding of current trends and to project them into the future. Given the uncertainties associated with estimates of future human behaviour, it is impossible to predict the future with any confidence; rather it is customary to construct "scenarios", which describe plausible future conditions. The scenarios developed by the different FINSKEN research groups include (document Figure [pdf, 34KB]):

Scenario integration was the responsibility of the co-ordination group (SYKE-1)
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Scenario integration

One of the key objectives of FINSKEN was to develop scenarios that are mutually consistent. This requires that all scenarios should be based on the same underlying socio-economic driving factors. To address this need, FINSKEN adopted, where possible, the global socio-economic and technological storylines developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

With a given set of socio-economic assumptions it is possible to calculate a range of plausible scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere. Similarly, for a given emissions scenario, it is possible to estimate the concentrations of gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, their effects on the radiation balance of the Earth, and their effect on the climate and, subsequently, on sea level. Since projections are uncertain at each link of the chain, sets of scenarios need to be developed that represent the range of uncertainty at each level.

Another key objective of FINSKEN was to prepare scenarios that are of relevance to potential users. The project attempted to identify and involve these "stakeholders" through the preparation of a brochure, a questionnaire study, scenario seminars and small group, sectoral discussions.

Research group and Results and Publications
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Updated 26.02.2004, Stefan Fronzek
Research Programme for Global Change (GTO) | Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)

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